Looking For Input on Pass Percentages

[zak99b5]

My league is refining using dice to determine pass completion.

First, with a D6, we had a roll of 1-5 be complete if receiver was in backfield, 1-4 from LOS to 15 yards out, 1-3 from 16-30 yards, and 1-2 over 30.  A roll of 6 would be an interception IF there were an unengaged defender within a passing placement stick of the intended receiver.  

This worked to speed up the game, but was far from ideal, with a QB 18 yards behind the LOS throwing to a receiver across the field and 15 yards past the LOS and a defender right next to him being pretty easy to complete.

So we've decided to use the measuring passing stick to determine the roll.  If it's a red pass 1-4, white pass 1-3, blue pass 1-2 (same INT rules).

This made it a bit better and what we are finishing the season with.

However, we want to refine this a bit.  I have two D10s, one for the tens digit and one for the ones.  But we need to decide on the percentages at the three distances.

We found that over the modern NFL history, 57% of passes were complete (I'm sure it's a little higher now).

First thought was to use same %s as before (0-66 roll complete on red pass, 0-50 white, 0-33 blue).  Then we thought maybe make it 0-70 red, 0-55 white, 0-40 blue.

What seems more realistic?  Are there better percentages for us to use?

Additionally, we are adding pressure: defender close enough to QB knocks the number to roll down 5 points, and a close defender to receiver would also reduce it another 5, with a possible 10 subtracted if both are under duress.  

It would only seem fair if the receiver is wide open that the roll target increases by say 5, like if there's no defender further downfield than he is on his side of the field (using the hashmarks somehow?)

Congrats if you read all this.  I'm looking forward to the input of my fellow EFers.

[Terry43]

I voted because you used the Poll feature of the Forum and that is so damn cool I just had to participate. I checked, "Some other distribution," so you should throw my vote out because I don't use passing sticks. Thank you for using the Poll feature. 😃👍

In Vegas, in the game of Craps, the odds look like this:

 So, for short (i.e. blue stick) passes (2 dice, both D6) use a roll of a 6, or of a 7, or of a 8. That will give you a 44.44% chance of a completion.

For a medium (i.e. white stick) range pass use a roll of a 4, or of a 5, or of a 9, or of a 10. That gives you a 38.88% chance of a completion.

For the long (i.e. red stick) pass use a roll of  a 2, or of a 3, or of a 11, or of a 12. That would give you a 16.68% chance of a completion.

 

According to Sports Illustrated, "The league's interception rate (the percentage of pass attempts that are intercepted) has been below 2.5% in each of the past four seasons, and through only three weeks of the 2019 season we're on pace for the all-time low of 2.17%"

So you could get creative and keep the 12 as an interception (2.78%), and for the short pass you could use a roll of a 5, or a 6, or a 7, or an 8 and that would get the completion rate up to 55.55%.

 

8 hours ago, zak99b5 said:

I have two D10s, one for the tens digit and one for the ones.

If you add the D10s together, instead of using the dice for tens and ones, then the distribution will be the same. With D10s you will have 100 possible combinations instead of 36 (6 X 6 = 36  vs  10 X 10 = 100).

I believe your League's idea has considerable merit. I believe it would fun to be in your League for a season to see how the Dice / Passing Stick Plan plays out.

Enjoy the Journey    T43   ⚡🏈♾️

[BlueHen]

On 12/14/2023 at 11:50 AM, zak99b5 said:

My league is refining using dice to determine pass completion.

First, with a D6, we had a roll of 1-5 be complete if receiver was in backfield, 1-4 from LOS to 15 yards out, 1-3 from 16-30 yards, and 1-2 over 30.  A roll of 6 would be an interception IF there were an unengaged defender within a passing placement stick of the intended receiver.  

This worked to speed up the game, but was far from ideal, with a QB 18 yards behind the LOS throwing to a receiver across the field and 15 yards past the LOS and a defender right next to him being pretty easy to complete.

So we've decided to use the measuring passing stick to determine the roll.  If it's a red pass 1-4, white pass 1-3, blue pass 1-2 (same INT rules).

This made it a bit better and what we are finishing the season with.

However, we want to refine this a bit.  I have two D10s, one for the tens digit and one for the ones.  But we need to decide on the percentages at the three distances.

We found that over the modern NFL history, 57% of passes were complete (I'm sure it's a little higher now).

First thought was to use same %s as before (0-66 roll complete on red pass, 0-50 white, 0-33 blue).  Then we thought maybe make it 0-70 red, 0-55 white, 0-40 blue.

What seems more realistic?  Are there better percentages for us to use?

Additionally, we are adding pressure: defender close enough to QB knocks the number to roll down 5 points, and a close defender to receiver would also reduce it another 5, with a possible 10 subtracted if both are under duress.  

It would only seem fair if the receiver is wide open that the roll target increases by say 5, like if there's no defender further downfield than he is on his side of the field (using the hashmarks somehow?)

Congrats if you read all this.  I'm looking forward to the input of my fellow EFers.

Cool idea. One idea I picked up is when throwing across the field, you take into account how far, which as you know, can be further when throwing a 5 yard pass than say a 10 or 15 yarder right over the middle. 

Therefore, you might consider subtracting a percentage for each zone (the field is divided into 5 zones by using the hashmarks and numbers). Coach Terry isn't exactly a fan of this gentleman on account of his, errr, rambling, but I submit that he does offer good ideas. Here's his video (FYI, there's a note card he holds up around the 7 minute mark if you want to write down the numbers for an idea on what to go by for passing percentages): 

 

[BlueHen]

On 12/14/2023 at 9:00 PM, Terry43 said:

I voted because you used the Poll feature of the Forum and that is so damn cool I just had to participate. I checked, "Some other distribution," so you should throw my vote out because I don't use passing sticks. Thank you for using the Poll feature. 😃👍

In Vegas, in the game of Craps, the odds look like this:

 So, for short (i.e. blue stick) passes (2 dice, both D6) use a roll of a 6, or of a 7, or of a 8. That will give you a 44.44% chance of a completion.

For a medium (i.e. white stick) range pass use a roll of a 4, or of a 5, or of a 9, or of a 10. That gives you a 38.88% chance of a completion.

For the long (i.e. red stick) pass use a roll of  a 2, or of a 3, or of a 11, or of a 12. That would give you a 16.68% chance of a completion.

 

 

I'm Loving this idea Coach Terry! Thanks for sharing. 🙂

 

Oh, I voted "some other percentages" also 😉 

[Daryl Collins]

Coach T43’s explanation is why I buy a ticket to the matinee!! He also has a system of passing with dice, that I use, that has worked out tremendously well. Just watch one of his video game posts and you’ll get it right away. The fascinating thing is how cold and hot streaks seem to appear, using his style of play, just like in real games. 
It is uncanny to witness!

Journey On!

[nefgm.org]

I am only going to say this about the person who is Electric Football Hero. Yes, he does present some very good ideas on playing the game. And yes he does ramble on and on about things which make it very hard to watch his videos or listen to him. But his comments about Tudor and how nobody was playing electric football because of Tudor got him banned from every FB group he belonged to and also this forum. Despite the differences that I personally had with him, I still felt like His rules and some of the other systems of play he created were worthy enough to be saved and included in my history of Electric Football. You can find them on the nefgm.org website. EHFL 3RD EDITION Rule Book Volume One.  https://nefgm.org/the-nefgm-library/rules/solitaire-league-rules/

[Coach Shawn]

Last year I started recording the length of stick used on pass plays.  Prior to that I just indicated that it was a pass.

I will try to go through the season and check my stats.

 

this is the first Quarter game record for my solitaire league Championship game.   My shorthand method;

play type/ yards gained or lost/ ball carrier or receiver/ # in triangle is defender that got pressure/ # in circle is defender making the tackle / TD if touchdown occurred / abbreviation of team on offense to show who has the ball.

RS= red stick, BS = Blue Stick, WS= White Stick . 
add a P if pass was under pressure (ex: WSP = White Stick with Pressure)

R4 is a run through the 4 hole.  So R# is always a run with the target hole indicated.

[Coach Shawn]

I ran the stats for this one game.

Union Jacks went 9-14 passing. 
RS was 2 for 2. 
RSP was 3 for 3. 
WS was 2 for 4 (one was intercepted). 
WSP was 2 for 2.  
BS was 0 for 1 (Interception).  
BSP was none tried.

Talons went 3 for 4 passing. 
RS none tried.  
RSP none tried.
WS was 2 for 2.  
WSP was 1 for 2.
BS none tried. 
BSP none tried.

This is just one game and were the two top teams for this season so not sure how good of a sample this is but it is a start.

 

[BlueHen]

4 hours ago, nefgm.org said:

I am only going to say this about the person who is Electric Football Hero. Yes, he does present some very good ideas on playing the game. And yes he does ramble on and on about things which make it very hard to watch his videos or listen to him. But his comments about Tudor and how nobody was playing electric football because of Tudor got him banned from every FB group he belonged to and also this forum. Despite the differences that I personally had with him, I still felt like His rules and some of the other systems of play he created were worthy enough to be saved and included in my history of Electric Football. You can find them on the nefgm.org website. EHFL 3RD EDITION Rule Book Volume One.  https://nefgm.org/the-nefgm-library/rules/solitaire-league-rules/

As always, an insightful comment coach. Yes, I think I understand the dilemma being presented here. However, a true professional will always look at the ideas and not necessarily the person presenting them. Good on ya' mate. 👍💪🤝

[zak99b5]

I've seen that 5-zone passing video.  I am going to incorporate the zone idea into deciding if a receiver is "wide open."

I think we are going to use the measuring stick to determine how far away the target is.

For red (short) pass, roll 00-70 for completion.

For white (medium), the roll is 00-55.

For a blue pass roll 00-40.

We use the pressure placement sticks to see if a defender (must be unengaged) is close enough to intercept the ball.  If there's two defenders, it's the one closest to the path between QB and receiver.  INT is possible with a roll above 83.

If a defender is closer than half the pressure stick to the receiver, it's -5 on the roll (00-50 on a white pass, for example).

If a defender is within the orange pressure stick to the QB, it's -5 on the roll.  This can be combined with DB pressure.

If a receiver is wide open, +5 (maybe +10?) to the roll required.  Haven't sorted out fully what wide open means, but I'm thinking a full "zone" between defender and receiver.  Also if the receiver is the furthest downfield player.  Maybe make those each +5, and can combine for +10.

Lastly, rolls of 11, 33, 55, and 77 will elicit a draw from a penalty card deck.  Thinking an even mix of offensive and defensive penalties: OPI, DPI, holding both ways, RTP, false start, encroachment, etc.

[BlueHen]

17 hours ago, zak99b5 said:

I've seen that 5-zone passing video.  I am going to incorporate the zone idea into deciding if a receiver is "wide open."

I think we are going to use the measuring stick to determine how far away the target is.

For red (short) pass, roll 00-70 for completion.

For white (medium), the roll is 00-55.

For a blue pass roll 00-40.

We use the pressure placement sticks to see if a defender (must be unengaged) is close enough to intercept the ball.  If there's two defenders, it's the one closest to the path between QB and receiver.  INT is possible with a roll above 83.

If a defender is closer than half the pressure stick to the receiver, it's -5 on the roll (00-50 on a white pass, for example).

If a defender is within the orange pressure stick to the QB, it's -5 on the roll.  This can be combined with DB pressure.

If a receiver is wide open, +5 (maybe +10?) to the roll required.  Haven't sorted out fully what wide open means, but I'm thinking a full "zone" between defender and receiver.  Also if the receiver is the furthest downfield player.  Maybe make those each +5, and can combine for +10.

Lastly, rolls of 11, 33, 55, and 77 will elicit a draw from a penalty card deck.  Thinking an even mix of offensive and defensive penalties: OPI, DPI, holding both ways, RTP, false start, encroachment, etc.

👍 I like it 

The only thing I might add is since you're making the coverage a -5 for good coverage or +5 for wide open (as opposed to a normal open where a DB is somewhere nearby), and you're giving the QB a -5 for pressure....why not give the QB a +5 if there are no rushers/blitzers anywhere in the vicinity? This might be tantamount to a Tom Brady just sitting back in the pocket and being able to focus downfield and picking apart that defense like a surgeon without worrying about the rush...

[zak99b5]

Good idea!  I'll need to think about what constitues a totally "open" QB.